UFC Edmonton Predictions: Buckley vs Malott and Best Bets

UFC Edmonton promises an exciting night of MMA on 17 October, with Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott headlining a card packed with Canadian talent. The main event brings together two dangerous welterweights chasing very different objectives, while the co-main event could reshape the women's flyweight title picture.

But which fighters have the strongest chances of winning? We examine striking statistics, grappling ability, recent opposition and tactical advantages to identify four standout selections from the card.

With several intriguing matchups ahead, the numbers reveal some interesting possibilities.

Buckley vs Malott: Who Will Win the UFC Edmonton Main Event?

Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott arrive in Edmonton heading in opposite directions.

Buckley enters as the UFC's tenth-ranked welterweight, looking to rebuild momentum after two consecutive defeats. The American has already faced established names, including Kamaru Usman, Sean Brady and Colby Covington.

Malott, ranked 13th, has won four consecutive fights and is chasing his biggest breakthrough yet. His recent victories over Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns have strengthened his reputation as one of Canada's most promising welterweights.

The matchup presents an interesting question. Will Buckley's experience against elite opposition outweigh Malott's impressive statistical advantages?

Malott Leads in Four Key Performance Indicators

The figures highlight four areas where the Canadian holds the advantage.

Malott's striking accuracy stands out immediately. He connects with almost half his significant strike attempts, suggesting greater efficiency when finding openings.

His finishing record also deserves attention. Twelve of his 14 professional victories have come inside the distance, evenly divided between knockouts and submissions.

Buckley remains extremely dangerous, though. Fifteen of his 21 victories have come by knockout, demonstrating the explosive power that makes him a threat in almost any striking exchange.

However, raw statistics only tell part of the story.

Buckley has spent considerable time facing higher-ranked opponents, whose defensive skills and tactical discipline naturally make clean strikes and successful takedowns harder to achieve.

Malott's numbers are encouraging, but maintaining that efficiency against established contenders presents a different challenge.

Where Could the Main Event Be Decided?

Buckley's clearest route to victory involves creating exchanges at boxing range.

His explosive left hand, rapid combinations and ability to punish opponents advancing carelessly make him particularly dangerous early in fights.

Malott offers a different problem. His combination of straight punches, kicks and grappling threats gives him several ways to interrupt Buckley's rhythm.

Three factors could determine the outcome.

• Distance management: Malott needs to avoid prolonged exchanges within Buckley's preferred punching range.
• Defensive wrestling: Buckley's 70% takedown defence offers resistance, but sustained grappling pressure could test his conditioning.
• Later rounds: Malott must demonstrate that he can maintain his output across five rounds against an experienced opponent.

One concern for the Canadian is his own 57% takedown defence. Buckley could exploit that weakness if his striking approach becomes predictable.

Still, Malott's ability to combine different attacking methods gives him a narrow tactical advantage.

Our prediction: Mike Malott to win by decision.

We favour Malott to control enough exchanges through accurate striking and occasional takedowns. Buckley's knockout power makes this a competitive selection rather than a comfortable favourite.

Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius: Who Moves Closer to Natalia Silva?

The UFC Edmonton co-main event carries major implications for the women's flyweight division.

Natalia Silva recently captured the vacant championship after defeating Wang Cong by unanimous decision at UFC 332. Her arrival at the top creates fresh opportunities for contenders hoping to secure the next title challenge.

Erin Blanchfield enters ranked fourth, with Jasmine Jasudavicius sitting sixth.

Both have reasons to believe a convincing victory could strengthen their position, although neither is guaranteed an immediate title opportunity.

Can Jasudavicius Handle Blanchfield's Grappling?

Blanchfield's biggest strength is her ability to turn wrestling exchanges into prolonged periods of control.

She combines takedowns with positional pressure, advances effectively on the canvas and regularly threatens submissions when opponents attempt to escape.

Her experience against established contenders also gives her an important advantage.

Jasudavicius brings considerable physical strength, particularly in the clinch. She can frustrate opponents with close-range pressure and maintain a demanding pace throughout three rounds.

However, successfully defending individual takedowns is not enough against Blanchfield.

The Canadian must also prevent her opponent from connecting repeated wrestling attacks, controlling transitions and accumulating valuable time on the ground.

If Jasudavicius keeps the contest standing, her volume and physicality could produce competitive rounds. Otherwise, Blanchfield's positional skills should gradually take over.

Our prediction: Erin Blanchfield to win by decision.

Blanchfield's superior grappling experience gives her the clearest technical advantage among our four selections. A controlled performance could also strengthen her case for facing Natalia Silva.

Cristian Perez vs Kyle Nelson: Can the Mexican Make an Immediate Impact?

Cristian Perez arrives at UFC Edmonton with an impressive professional record of 15 wins and two defeats.

The Mexican secured his opportunity through Dana White's Contender Series and now faces Kyle Nelson, an experienced UFC competitor fighting in front of a Canadian crowd.

Perez has finished 12 opponents, recording six knockouts and six submissions. That balance makes him particularly interesting because opponents cannot concentrate exclusively on defending one attacking method.

Nelson brings greater experience inside the Octagon and understands how to punish aggressive fighters who leave defensive openings.

Will Perez Find a Submission Opening?

Perez is most dangerous when he connects his striking attacks with grappling transitions.

His willingness to pursue finishes creates opportunities during scrambles, especially against opponents who expose their neck or back while attempting to return to their feet.

Nelson's clearest route involves maintaining distance, controlling the tempo and forcing Perez to work through extended striking exchanges.

That approach could test the newcomer's patience and expose any weaknesses in his defensive positioning.

However, Nelson has previously experienced difficulties against technically effective grapplers, giving Perez a potentially rewarding route to victory.

The biggest uncertainty concerns how the Mexican adapts to a more experienced opponent under UFC conditions.

Our prediction: Cristian Perez to win by submission.

His attacking versatility gives him an advantage if he creates sustained grappling exchanges. Nevertheless, Nelson's experience makes this one of the riskier selections.

Barriault vs Daukaus: Who Controls the Middleweight Clash?

Marc-Andre Barriault and Kyle Daukaus offer another intriguing contrast in styles.

Barriault is known for his forward pressure, physical exchanges and willingness to turn fights into exhausting contests.

Daukaus approaches matters differently. His technical grappling, submission skills and positional awareness allow him to capitalise on opponents who become too aggressive.

The Canadian will have the crowd behind him, but this matchup could depend more on discipline than atmosphere.

Can Daukaus Neutralise Barriault's Pressure?

Barriault's best opportunity involves forcing Daukaus backwards, trapping him near the fence and building momentum through repeated combinations.

That strategy carries an obvious danger.

Closing distance without maintaining defensive positioning gives Daukaus opportunities to initiate grappling exchanges and work towards dominant positions.

His submission threats could also discourage Barriault from attacking recklessly, reducing the effectiveness of the Canadian's usual pressure.

If Daukaus maintains distance when necessary and chooses his grappling opportunities carefully, he has the tools to dictate important stretches of the contest.

Barriault's durability and work rate remain legitimate concerns, particularly if Daukaus struggles to establish consistent control.

Our prediction: Kyle Daukaus to win by decision.

We expect his technical discipline and positional advantages to produce the cleaner work across three rounds, although Barriault could make the contest physically demanding.

UFC Edmonton Predictions: Our Four Final Picks

Looking across the four matchups, technical versatility and clear paths to victory emerge as the most important factors.

These confidence ratings reflect a qualitative assessment of each matchup, rather than calculated probabilities.

Blanchfield receives the strongest rating because her established grappling skills present a particularly convincing route to victory.

Malott faces a more uncertain challenge, especially considering Buckley's experience against higher-ranked competition. Perez and Daukaus also have technical advantages, although their opponents possess credible ways to disrupt those plans.

The official weigh-ins remain an important final consideration. Difficult weight cuts, missed limits or unexpected changes in physical condition could alter how these contests unfold.

What Should We Expect From UFC Edmonton?

Four matchups, four different tactical challenges and plenty of opportunity for surprises.

Blanchfield looks the most reliable selection, while Malott has a genuine chance to claim the biggest victory of his career. Perez brings exciting finishing potential, and Daukaus could benefit from a patient, technical approach.

The Canadian crowd should provide a brilliant atmosphere, but performances inside the Octagon will ultimately decide everything. Pay close attention to the opening exchanges, as those first few minutes could reveal which fighters are best placed to take control.